Monthly Archives: September 2015


have Volkswagen shares falling below €100 :


Many are suggesting that this is a unique buying opportunity. However it’s hard to get excited about VW when the US fines could end up being a third of the firm’s market cap. Then there will be fines from other nations such as Canada, and tons of lawsuits. Ultimately this could be an interesting acquisition target for someone.

Here is the firm’s CDS-implied default probability.

vw 1

Brazil woes !

The collapsing real which has breached 4 reais to one dollar – now at record lows :


Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield is above 16% as investors flee. There is no “soft landing” here. Brazil’s economy is in serious trouble.

10 y

Swiss bank notes

Negative interest rates, deflation and strong currency make people’s mattress the preferred savings vehicle. Greeks and others from the Eurozone collecting Swiss franc notes are adding to the demand. A safety deposit box in Zurich can be rented without opening a bank account.

1000 chf


China slowdown that has been underway for four years and has been underestimated, especially by commodity producers who had over-extrapolated growth rates at the peak.

perspectives croissance Chine