have Volkswagen shares falling below €100 :


Many are suggesting that this is a unique buying opportunity. However it’s hard to get excited about VW when the US fines could end up being a third of the firm’s market cap. Then there will be fines from other nations such as Canada, and tons of lawsuits. Ultimately this could be an interesting acquisition target for someone.

Here is the firm’s CDS-implied default probability.

vw 1

Brazil woes !

The collapsing real which has breached 4 reais to one dollar – now at record lows :


Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield is above 16% as investors flee. There is no “soft landing” here. Brazil’s economy is in serious trouble.

10 y